Gulf of Maine Alexandrium fundyense Model Results – 2009

 

Ruoying He1, Yizhen Li1, Dennis McGillicuddy2, Don Anderson2, Bruce Keafer2

1North Carolina State University

2Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

 

 

Disclaimer: these simulations are for experimental purposes only.

 

Results here represent model solutions initiated from a cyst abundance map from October 2008, with germination, growth, and transport of Alexandrium fundyense cells driven by the factors listed below.

 

Physical circulation model

Multiple nested ROMS, ca. ~1km resolution in GOM

Tides (M2, S2, N2, K2, K1, O1, Q1)

6-hourly wind and heat fluxes from NOAA/NCEP NOMADS (35-km resolution)

River runoff data from USGS

Sea surface temperature from satellites

Initial conditions and open boundary conditions from large-scale parent model (HYCOM)

 

Alexandrium fundyense model

Population dynamics from Stock et al. (2005); McGillicuddy et al. (2005), and He et al., (2008)

Cyst maps from Fall 2008 Survey in comparison with earlier years

(http://omglnx3.meas.ncsu.edu/yli/cystmap/cystmap_04_08.png)

Solar radiation from NOAA/NCEP

Monthly climatological nutrient fields from University of Maine

The mortality rate of A. fundyense is now parameterized using the temperature dependent Q10 formulation (Durbin and Durbin, 1992)

 

Modeled A. fundyense bloom

          An animation showing surface wind fields and modeled bloom conditions from February 1, 2009 to July 15, 12:00, 2009

http://omglnx3.meas.ncsu.edu/yli/09forecast/dino_09.htm
 
An 3-D animation showing modeled surface and subsurface cell abundance from February 1, 2009 to July 5, 12:00, 2009
           http://omglnx3.meas.ncsu.edu/yli/09forecast_3d/dino_09.htm


   

Last update: July 13, 2009