Gulf of Maine Alexandrium fundyense Model Results – 2008

Ruoying He¹, Yizhen Li¹, Dennis McGillicuddy², Don Anderson², Bruce Keafer²

¹North Carolina State University

²Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Disclaimer: these simulations are for experimental purposes only.

Results here represent model solutions initiated from a cyst abundance map from October 2007, with germination, growth, and transport of Alexandrium fundyense cells driven by the factors listed below.

Physical circulation model

Multiple nested ROMS, ca. ~1km resolution in GOM

Tides (M2, S2, N2, K2, K1, O1, Q1)

6-hourly wind and heat fluxes from NOAA/NCEP NARR (35-km resolution)

River runoff data from USGS

Sea surface temperature from satellites

Initial conditions and open boundary conditions from large-scale parent model (HYCOM)

Alexandrium fundyense model

Population dynamics from Stock et al. (2005); McGillicuddy et al. (2005), and He et al., (2008)

Cyst maps from Fall 2007 Survey in comparison with earlier years

(http://omgrhe.meas.ncsu.edu/Redtide/Redtide_08/cystmap_1m_0307.png )

Solar radiation from NOAA/NCEP

Climatological nutrient fields from BIO (Petrie et al., 2000)

The mortality rate of A. fundyense is now parameterized using the temperature dependent Q₁₀ formulation (Durbin and Durbin, 1992)

Modeled A. fundyense bloom

An animation showing surface wind fields and modeled bloom conditions from March 1, 2008 to August 3, 12:00, 2008

http://omglnx3.meas.ncsu.edu/yli/08forecast/dino_08.htm

An 3-D animation showing modeled surface and subsurface cell abundance from March 1, 2008 to August 3, 12:00, 2008
http://omglnx3.meas.ncsu.edu/yli/08forecast_3d/dino_08.htm

Model-data comparison

Apr/29~May/05,2008 ( Oceanus 445 ):

        May/15~May/16,2008 ( Tioga 303 ):


May/29 ( Oceanus 447):

Last update: August 1, 2008