Gulf of Maine Alexandrium fundyense Model Results – 2008

 

Ruoying He1, Yizhen Li1, Dennis McGillicuddy2, Don Anderson2, Bruce Keafer2

1North Carolina State University

2Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

 

 

Disclaimer: these simulations are for experimental purposes only.

 

Results here represent model solutions initiated from a cyst abundance map from October 2007, with germination, growth, and transport of Alexandrium fundyense cells driven by the factors listed below.

 

Physical circulation model

Multiple nested ROMS, ca. ~1km resolution in GOM

Tides (M2, S2, N2, K2, K1, O1, Q1)

6-hourly wind and heat fluxes from NOAA/NCEP NOMADS (35-km resolution)

River runoff data from USGS

Sea surface temperature from satellites

Initial conditions and open boundary conditions from large-scale parent model (HYCOM)

 

Alexandrium fundyense model

Population dynamics from Stock et al. (2005); McGillicuddy et al. (2005), He et al., (in press)

Cyst maps from fall 2007 Survey in comparison with earlier years

(http://omglnx3.meas.ncsu.edu/yli/cystmap/cystmap_04_07.png)

Solar radiation from NOAA/NCEP

Monthly climatological nutrient fields from University of Maine

The mortality rate of A. fundyense is now parameterized using the temperature dependent Q10 formulation (Durbin and Durbin, 1992)

 

Modeled A. fundyense bloom

          An animation showing surface wind fields and modeled bloom conditions from March 1, 2010 to June 28 , 12:00, 2008

http://omglnx3.meas.ncsu.edu/yli/08forecast/dino_08.htm
 
An 3-D animation showing modeled surface and subsurface cell abundance from March 1, 2010 to June 28, 12:00, 2008
           http://omglnx3.meas.ncsu.edu/yli/08forecast_3d/dino_08.htm


Model-data comparison

 Apr 29--May 05,2008 ( Oceanus 445 ):





 















May 15--16, 2008 ( Tioga 303):





















May 29--30, 2008 (OC 447)

 











 




         





        
Last update: June 28, 2008