Gulf of Maine Alexandrium fundyense Model Results – 2012

 

Ruoying He1, Yizhen Li1, Dennis McGillicuddy2, Don Anderson2, Bruce Keafer2

1North Carolina State University

2Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

 

 

Disclaimer: these simulations are for experimental purposes only.

 

Results here represent model solutions initiated from a cyst abundance map from October 2011, with germination, growth, and transport of Alexandrium fundyense cells driven by the factors listed below.

 

Physical circulation model

Multiple nested ROMS, ca. ~1km resolution in GOM

Tides (M2, S2, N2, K2, K1, O1, Q1)

6-hourly wind and heat fluxes from NOAA/NCEP NOMADS (35-km resolution)

River runoff data from USGS

Sea surface temperature from satellites

Initial conditions and open boundary conditions from large-scale parent model (HYCOM)

 

Alexandrium fundyense model

Population dynamics from Stock et al. (2005); McGillicuddy et al. (2005), He et al., (2008) and Li et al.(2009)

Cyst maps from Fall 2010 Survey in comparison with earlier years

(http://omglnx3.meas.ncsu.edu/yli/cystmap/cystmap_04_11.png)

Solar radiation from NOAA/NCEP

Monthly climatological nutrient fields from University of Maine

The mortality rate of A. fundyense is now parameterized using the temperature dependent Q10 formulation (Durbin and Durbin, 1992)

 

Modeled A. fundyense bloom

          An animation showing surface wind fields and modeled bloom conditions from February 1, 2012 to July 22, 12:00, 2012

http://omglnx3.meas.ncsu.edu/GOMTOX/2012forecast/dino_12.htm
 
A 3-D animation showing modeled surface and subsurface cell abundance from February 1, 2012 to July 22, 12:00, 2012
           http://omglnx3.meas.ncsu.edu/GOMTOX/2012forecast_3d/dino_12.htm



Model-data comparisons




















                         





Figure 1. Comparison between Observed (left) and modeled (right) surface cell concentration (unit: Cell#/L) on  May15th, 2012. (Thanks to MWRA for providing preliminary observations)




















                          
              
                       

Figure 2. Comparison between Observed (left) and modeled (right) surface cell concentration (unit: Cell#/L) on  May 22nd, 2012. (Thanks to MWRA for providing preliminary observations)





















                         
               




                          Figure 3. Comparison between Observed (left) and modeled (right) surface cell concentration (unit: Cell#/L) on  May 30th, 2012. (Thanks to MWRA for providing preliminary observations)


























                          




                       Figure 4. Comparison between Observed (left) and modeled (right) surface cell concentration (unit: Cell#/L) on  June 7th, 2012. (Thanks to MWRA for providing preliminary observations)






                       Figure 5. Comparison between Observed (left) and modeled (right) surface cell concentration (unit: Cell#/L) on  June 19th, 2012. (Thanks to MWRA for providing preliminary observations)






























Last update: July 20, 2012