Ruoying He1, Yizhen Li1, Dennis McGillicuddy2, Don Anderson2, Bruce Keafer2
2Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Disclaimer: these simulations are for experimental purposes only.
Results here represent model solutions initiated from a cyst abundance map from October 2010, with germination, growth, and transport of Alexandrium fundyense cells driven by the factors listed below.
Physical circulation model
Multiple nested ROMS, ca. ~1km resolution in GOM
Tides (M2, S2, N2,
6-hourly wind and heat fluxes from NOAA/NCEP NOMADS (35-km resolution)
River runoff data from USGS
Sea surface temperature from satellites
Initial conditions and open boundary conditions from large-scale parent model (HYCOM)
Alexandrium fundyense model
from Stock et
al. (2005); McGillicuddy et al. (2005), He et al., (2008) and Li et
Cyst maps from Fall 2010 Survey in comparison with earlier years
Solar radiation from NOAA/NCEP
Monthly climatological nutrient fields from University of Maine
The mortality rate of A. fundyense is now parameterized using the temperature dependent Q10 formulation (Durbin and Durbin, 1992)
An animation showing surface wind fields and modeled bloom conditions from February 1, 2011 to July 17, 12:00, 2011
An 3-D animation showing modeled surface and subsurface cell abundance from February 1, 2011 to July 17, 12:00, 2011
Accuracy of the forecast may be
affected by changing water mass characteristics in the Gulf of Maine,
which in turn can have a direct effect on the growing conditions for
For example, in 2010 near-surface coastal waters were warmer, fresher, and lower in nutrients than usual (McGillicuddy et al., in preparation).
The GOMTOX team believes this suppressed what otherwise would have been a major regional bloom, which had in fact been forecast for that year.
Recent observations from NOAA’s Ecosystem Monitoring Program (EcoMon) surveys and Fisheries and Oceans Canada's Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program (AZMP)
indicate that similar water mass anomalies may occur in 2011, suggesting the bloom could be suppressed this year as it was in 2010.
Figure 4. Comparison
Observed (left) and modeled (right) surface cell concentration (unit:
Cell#/L) on June 1st, 2011. (Thanks to MWRA for providing
Last update: July 16, 2011